THE carbon tax has pushed prices up but it is difficult to say by how much.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) said on Wednesday that it wouldn't be able to quantify the effect of the carbon tax on the consumer price index (CPI).
CPI, a key measure of inflation, rose 1.4 per cent in the September quarter, ABS figures show.
JP Morgan Australia chief economist Stephen Walters said his initial estimate showed it added 0.3 to 0.4 per cent to the headline CPI.
He said the biggest impact had been on electricity and gas prices, which rose 15.3 per cent and 14.2 per cent respectively in the quarter.
"The impact of the carbon tax is evident in the fact that electricity and gas prices soared last quarter, but it is difficult to be precise about the extent to which the tax lifted headline inflation," Mr Walters said.
"Some of the gain in electricity prices, for example, came from the annual price rises designed to help fund network expansions."
However, Commonwealth Bank of Australia chief economist Michael Blythe said the effect of the tax was closer to 0.2 per cent, suggesting it may not push prices up as much as official forecasts expected.
"This outcome suggests that the price impact will fall short of earlier Treasury modelling work that put the CPI contribution in 2012/13 at 0.7 percentage points," he said.
The tax has not had the same impact on prices as the introduction of the GST in 2000, which affected a broader range of goods and services and pushed the inflation rate to 6.1 per cent from 3.1 per cent.
Mr Walters said the RBA would look through the initial spike in prices when it next contemplated whether to change the cash rate, like it did when the GST was introduced in 2000.
"The size of the spike last quarter, though, means there now could be second and subsequent price rises related to the carbon tax that also will be difficult to detect," he said.
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