AFTER a torturous three years, voters can now see the early fruit of the federal government's controversial mining tax - more of a grape than a watermelon.
Labor's introduction of a super-profits-based mining tax was the final death-knell for one prime minister, sparked all-out war with the mining community, deepened rifts with the states, and tied up many, many hours of parliamentary inquiries.
And it took an order from the Senate this week to get the Commissioner of Taxation to release revenue raisings from the minerals resource rent tax (MRRT) since it began on July 1, 2012.
The coalition and Greens parties had already suspected the 30 per cent impost on the super profits of coal and iron ore miners would deliver much less than the government had trumpeted.
And they were right.
Treasurer Wayne Swan announced on Friday the MRRT raised just $126 million in its first six months - that's a mere 6.3 per cent of what it was supposed to generate ($2 billion) by June 30 this year.
"It's clear revenues from resource rent taxes have taken a massive hit from the impact of continued global instability, commodity price volatility and a high dollar," Swan explained.
But shadow assistant treasurer Mathias Cormann says the MRRT is a "complex, distorting, badly designed tax".
"Wayne Swan has made a mess of the budget and he's made a mess of the mining tax."
Almost three years ago - in May 2010 - the tax was spruiked as a fair way of "spreading the benefits of the mining boom" across Australia.
It was a key recommendation taken from the Henry tax review.
The original design was a 40 per cent resource super profits tax (RSPT) on all the minerals and metals dug out of the ground.
After an angry response and extensive campaign by the mining industry, new Labor Prime Minister Julia Gillard struck a deal with the big three companies - BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Xstrata - after toppling Kevin Rudd.
The RSPT was forecast to raise a net $12 billion in its first two years, according to the 2010/11 budget papers.
Forecasts for the later MRRT have been dwindling ever since.
The budget update in October said it would raise $9.1 billion in its first four years.
Swan says government revenues are down substantially across the board, and while iron ore prices have recovered somewhat the rebound will have a limited impact because contract prices are locked in.
Still, monthly data this week showed a substantial improvement in Australia's trade deficit.
This stemmed partly from a 19 per cent drop in capital goods imports in December.
But there was also 12 per cent rise in metal ores and minerals exports and a five per cent increase in coal product exports - leading to a trade gap of $427 million in December, down from a whopping $2.79 billion in November.
But now China is flagging caps on coal imports.
The Labor government has tied a number of initiatives to its MRRT revenue streams that will still have to be paid, whatever the revenue outcome.
These include superannuation tax breaks for low-paid workers, tax concessions from raising the compulsory super guarantee from nine to 12 per cent, and other tax incentives for families and business.
Opposition Leader Tony Abbott has vowed to ditch the MRRT - along with the carbon tax - should the coalition win the September 14 federal election.
In the case of both schemes, this would mean scrapping related initiatives - although the coalition does intend to retain the compulsory super guarantee component and fund it by other means.
The release of the MRRT revenue outcomes will be scrutinised during next week's Senate estimates hearings in Canberra.
The hearings will also provide the first opportunity for senators to grill the number crunchers from the departments of Treasury and Finance, after the government ditched its 2012/13 budget surplus forecast.
Labor is yet to indicate how far short the budget balance will be, there will further spending cuts to pay for big-ticket policies like the National Disability Insurance Scheme and schools funding.
This could involve tinkering with superannuation concessions, particularly for high-income earners.
But while the government won't rule anything in or out, Prime Minister Gillard has declared a withdrawal tax on super a no-go area.
"This is a government who's committed to making sure the system is sustainable, that it is fair, and we've got the runs on the board," superannuation minister Bill Shorten said this week.
"The only people who ever vote against making the system fair are the opposition."
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